Variables Don't; Constants Aren't: full disclosure

Tuesday, June 5, 2007

full disclosure

the following players are ones that i control on my lone personal fantasy baseball team (i would consider doing a tout wars league, but i'm pretty damn happy only having one league to follow).

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Pitchers
Albaladejo, Jonathan
Blackburn, Nick
De La Cruz, Eulugio
Delcarmen, Manny
Hoey, James
Marcum, Shaun
Patterson, Scott
Rodriguez, Wandy
Schmidt, Jason
Speier, Justin
Stockman, Phil
Wasserman, Ehren
Catchers
Castro, Ramon
Zaun, Greg
Infielders
Chavez, Angel
Feliz, Pedro
Greene, Khalil
Hill, Aaron
Kotchman, Casey
Phelps, Josh
Outfielders
Ankiel, Rick
Baldelli, Rocco
Botts, Jason
Ethier, Andre
Van Every, John
24 players
1 on DL

Reserve Roster
Pitchers
Elbert, Scott
Floyd, Gavin
Hansen, Craig
Jackson, Edwin
Liz, Radhames
Masterson, Justin
Motte, Jason
Moylan, Peter
Romero, Ricky
Tejeda, Robinson
VanBenschoten, John
Vandenhurk, Rick
Catchers
Johnson, Mark L.
Infielders
Frazier, Todd
Mitchell, Lee
Quintanilla, Omar
Santos, Sergio
Whitesell, Josh
Wilson, Josh
Outfielders
Casto, Kory
Duffy, Chris
Majewski, Val
Michaels, Jason
Nixon, Trot

24 players
Total Roster size
48

Waived Players
Gorneault, Nick
Beltran, Francis
Duncan, Eric
Palmisano, Lou

Free Agents
Cameron, Kevin
Fulchino, Jeff
Gardner, Lee
Green, Sean
Lugo, Julio
Pavano, Carl
Radke, Brad
Millar, Kevin
Phelps, Josh
Barker, Sean
Cruz, Nelson
Guzman, Freddy
Werth, Jayson
McDonald, Darnell
Rapada, Clay
Rabelo, Mike
Orie, Kevin
Corey, Mark
Devore, Doug
Ford, Matt
Espinosa, David
Warden, Jim Ed
LaMura, BJ
Parrish, John
Peguero, Jailen
Nunez, Abraham

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Organizational Depth Reports (ODRs) will be my takes on the depth of pitching for each of the 30 major league baseball teams. i'll try to feature one player in each organization and give my honest take on what i like, or what i don't. for some organizations, i will outline a sleeper who i feel is underrated or prepared to make an impact at the major league level. these sleepers will mostly be guys in the mold of chien ming wang and aaron laffey, guys who exhibit strong ground ball tendencies and low BB rates. organizations like the mets and the mariners might not have a sleeper indicated, but teams like the white and red sox have a few guys that i feel are underrated. if i've seen these pitchers throw i'll include a scouting report that is what i see, not what i've heard. the pitchers i outline will be guys on the fringe of the 25 man roster, not the cream of the crop, such as scott kazmir or cole hamels.

for the most part, 2007 draftees will not be included, however guys that i really like (blake beaven and david price) or guys that are flat out dominant (adam mills and dan duffy) will be included.

what this list attempts to do is identify the 10 pitchers who are most likely to make a positive impact at the MLB level within 3 years for each team, then rank them according to their likelihood of reaching MLB, and the impact they can have once there.

if i had to approximate the formula, it would be 3 parts upside, 1 part likelihood of making the big leagues within 3 years.

if i haven't seen a teenage pitcher that you feel deserves mentioning, feel free to comment. but if i haven't seen said pitcher in a game, and if i don't have much analytical data to go on, i find it meaningless for me to rate a pitcher that i don't have a feel for. if i don't have a feel for them, and if i have no way of approximating a feel for them, any ranking of them would be disingenuous.

after i go through all 30 organizations, i will publish my take on the top 75 professional pitchers under the age of 25. these will be the cream of the crop, the absolute best. some of the guys in that list will be established major league stars, while others will be minor leaguers that have yet to make their debut, so this is not a stereotypical prospect list, in the sense that all pitchers included are rookies, so much as a list of the 75 pitchers who will dominate baseball for the next decade.