rank...name...position...ETA
1. matt garza, RHSP *TRADED TO TB*
2. francisco liriano, LHSP
3. oswaldo sosa, RHSP - september 2008
4. kevin slowey, RHSP
5. eduardo morlan, RHRP - april 2008 *TRADED TO TB*
6. zack ward, RHSP - september 2009 *SLEEPER*
7. anthony swarzak, RHSP - september 2008
8. tyler robertson, LHSP - 2010
9. jeff manship, RHSP - mid 2009
10.glen perkins, LHSP
zack ward led the minor leagues in losses in 2007 with 17. that's not something to be especially proud of, but when your GB/FB ratio is twice league average, you're going to take your fair share of lumps in the minors. context is especially important when looking at sinkerballers in the minor leagues. defense and field quality are two variables that are most often against guys like ward when they are coming through the minors. i expect ward to continue taking his lumps at the minor league level, but i also think he's a great bet to become an innings eating starter.
swarzak and robertson have both dominated in their most recent minor league stints, but i'm not ready to proclaim either of them a good bet to be league average in the majors. they very well might turn out better than just league average, and each could find their way onto some publications' top 100 lists, but i have not yet bought in.
i have a weird feeling about jeff manship. he is now 3 years out from TJ surgery, so it's not likely that he has anything more coming in the way of fastball velocity, curveball breakage, or control. midway through the 2007 season, manship was voted to have the best breaking ball, and the best control in the midwest league by a BA survey of the league's managers. the weird feeling i get is that he's already peaked, in terms of stuff and performance. i love his numbers in A ball, and i love that he got recognized by BA for his control and breaking ball, but there's a nagging feeling in the back of my head that his control won't hold up, that his fastball isn't good enough, and that his injuries will recur. if i'm wrong, manship has a ceiling as a innings eating number 3. he gets a lot of groundballs off of his fastball, which when combined with his control and his breaking ball, gives manship a unique and valuable package. i look forward to seeing what he does in AA in 2008.
Spotlight: Matt Garza
yeah, i know he's no longer a twinkie, but i think he's more interesting than slowey, and my data on perkins is incomplete.
garza throws a plus 4 seam fastball that sits 93-96. it is deceptive in it's movement, and generates a lot of swingthroughs because of how quickly it gets on hitters. garza also throws a curve which sits around 76, and a changeup and slider which both sit in the low to mid 80s. all 3 offspeed pitches profile as slightly above average, with garza getting more swinging strikes off his slider, and more called strikes on his curve.
i'm a huge fan of garza's, and i still think he's got top tier potential despite his "struggles" in 2007. looking below the surface, garza was hurt last year by poor defensive support, as his defensive efficiency rating (the rate at which batted balls are turned into outs) was .643 (league average was .687). it might be a bit presumptuous to assume garza's DER will revert to league average, but without the potential for brendan harris and josh wilson to start at shortstop, i think it's a safe bet to make.
there are few pitchers i would take over matt garza, and i think he will be a tremendous addition to tampa bay's rotation.
Sunday, January 13, 2008
Saturday, January 12, 2008
2008 Houston Astros Organizational Depth Report
rank...name...position...ETA
1. juan gutierrez, RHSP *TRADED TO AZ*
2. brad james, RHSP - august 2008 *SLEEPER*
3. polin trinidad, LHSP - 2010
4. sam gervacio, RHRP - july 2008
5. bud norris, RHSP september 2009 *SLEEPER*
6. matt albers, RHSP *TRADED TO BAL*
7. felipe paulino, RHSP
8. paul estrada, RHRP - 2008
9. raymar diaz, RHSP - 2009
10.david qualben, LHSP - 2010
i like brad james alot. his control isn't the best, he doesn't K very many batters, and he isn't very young, but he gets a shitload of groundballs, and he prevents solid contact better than any pitcher in the astro system.
gutierrez and paulino combine to provide the kind of high upside arms that are present in any legitimate system. they are a little old, though, and the organization doesn't appear to have any plan for restocking the system with these types of arms once gutierrez and paulino graduate, but these two should start to pay dividends to the astros this season.
bud norris didn't take the workload that a college pitcher usually takes in his first full professional season, which is a plus, from my point of view. he pitched very lightly his first 3 months, but when he hit his stride in july, he was dominating, albeit as a 22 year old in low A. he backed this up with an impressive performance in the hawaii winter league, but again, he wasn't facing the highest level of competition. i see a lot of good markers in his performance though, from his K rate, to the spike in his GB rate in HWL, to the favorable splits versus LHB, which indicates a quality changeup.
Spotlight: Matt Albers
albers throws a hard 2 seam fastball that sits in the low 90s and generates a good percentage of groundballs. albers also throws a curve that sits around 79 MPH, and a changeup that sits in the low 80s. his pitches work well together, and his curveball is especially effective.
i've seen reports that have albers fastball as hitting 97 MPH, but i don't think it needs to hit that high note to be effective, nor do i think he'll be able to fall back on that whenever he gets in trouble. as it was in 2007, his fastball had plenty of movement which generated plenty of swinging strikes, and looks to have the potential to keep albers in the middle of a good rotation for the next 6 years.
when pitching in houston, albers had a 4.35 ERA with a 2:1 K:BB ratio and mediocre HR and H rates. when pitching on the road, albers' ERA ballooned to 7, he had more BBs than Ks, his HR rate jumped to more than twice league average, and he allowed 1.66 baserunners per inning.
having previously looked at the uniqueness of 2 astro starters, i'm close to throwing my hands up in the air and proclaiming that there's just something in the water, but as i'm not there yet, i'll just say that this is one more thing i need to keep my eye on.
Thursday, January 3, 2008
2008 Chicago White Sox Organizational Depth Report
rank...name...position...ETA
fautino de los santos, RHSP - september 2010
gavin floyd, RHSP
john danks, LHSP
clayton richard, LHSP - may 2009 *SLEEPER*
gio gonzalez, LHSP - april 2009
jack egbert, RHSP - september 2008
aaron poreda, LHSP - september 2009
kyle mcculloch, RHSP - mid 2009
charlie haeger, RHRP
carlos vasquez, LHRP - mid 2008
fautino de los santos looks like the next big pitching prospect. he has a tremendous fastball, which has drawn rave reviews from scouts, while his statistical profile substantiates the scouting reports, and at the same time shows no glaring weaknesses to be watched going forward. fautino has tremendous upside, and he could reach the majors in 2008 if pushed, but personally, i expect at least 1 year of injury/ineffectiveness from any 20 year old pitcher in A ball between his breakout and his debut, and de los santos is no exception. oftentimes, reigning in a young pitcher's innings, and letting him pull back from baseball can provide a tremendously important perspective on life, especially for a foreigner about to make it big. but then again, according to my philosophy, all that matters is winning at the major league level, and since i don't expect anything from 21 year old pitchers, i'm much more willing to slow down his ascension through the minors, in the hopes of keeping him fully healthy for his age 22-26 seasons, which is the butter zone, as far as i'm concerned.
clayton richard, carlos vasquez, and kyle mcculloch are favorites of mine because of their ability to record the most favorable outcome. i don't anticipate any of them becoming the next brandon webb, but i think a jon lieber type ceiling is within reach for the two starters, with a JC romero like ceiling being within reach of vasquez.
i've always liked gavin floyd. his curve still looks awesome, while his fastball is average, but one dimensional. floyd has added a cut fastball, but unless this pitch, or his changeup take a step forward, his ceiling is going to be a 4th starter. he'll continue to give up tons of homeruns, as an effect of both his straight fastball, and his pitching half his games in a bandbox known as new comiskey.
i still don't have a good feel for gio gonzalez. i can't see him as a power pitcher in the rotation, and i think his effectiveness would diminish greatly if his K rate fell to the 6-7 range, which is where i see it at the major league level. i don't want to pigeonhole him as a reliever, but i think if he gets called up in 2008, that's the role he should fill, with a possible rotation spot in 2009 if he is successful. a pitcher that i've looked at already, wandy rodriguez, has the same profile as gonzalez, a plus curve bordering on plus-plus, with a slightly above average fastball, and a workable changeup, coming from a frame under 6'. rodriguez's K rate spiked in 2007 at about 8 per 9 IP, and i see that as being the peak for gonzalez, which is why i have a hard time seeing him as a successful power pitcher.
Spotlight: John Danks
danks' days as a power pitcher are over. his fastball and slurve are both average pitches, coming in at 89-92 and 75-78 respectively, while his inconsistency with both pitches is going to drag down his peripherals. his changeup is a quality pitch that averages around 5-8 MPH less than his fastball, and mimics it's break and drop effectively.
danks has a lot of trouble locating his fastball, and doesn't seem to throw it with any discernible underlying purpose. he throws it all over the strikezone with little regard to placing it high/low/inside/outside.
i don't view danks so much as a pitcher, but more as a guy who makes a living hurling a ball in the general vicinity of an imaginary square 60'6" away from his left arm.
fautino de los santos, RHSP - september 2010
gavin floyd, RHSP
john danks, LHSP
clayton richard, LHSP - may 2009 *SLEEPER*
gio gonzalez, LHSP - april 2009
jack egbert, RHSP - september 2008
aaron poreda, LHSP - september 2009
kyle mcculloch, RHSP - mid 2009
charlie haeger, RHRP
carlos vasquez, LHRP - mid 2008
fautino de los santos looks like the next big pitching prospect. he has a tremendous fastball, which has drawn rave reviews from scouts, while his statistical profile substantiates the scouting reports, and at the same time shows no glaring weaknesses to be watched going forward. fautino has tremendous upside, and he could reach the majors in 2008 if pushed, but personally, i expect at least 1 year of injury/ineffectiveness from any 20 year old pitcher in A ball between his breakout and his debut, and de los santos is no exception. oftentimes, reigning in a young pitcher's innings, and letting him pull back from baseball can provide a tremendously important perspective on life, especially for a foreigner about to make it big. but then again, according to my philosophy, all that matters is winning at the major league level, and since i don't expect anything from 21 year old pitchers, i'm much more willing to slow down his ascension through the minors, in the hopes of keeping him fully healthy for his age 22-26 seasons, which is the butter zone, as far as i'm concerned.
clayton richard, carlos vasquez, and kyle mcculloch are favorites of mine because of their ability to record the most favorable outcome. i don't anticipate any of them becoming the next brandon webb, but i think a jon lieber type ceiling is within reach for the two starters, with a JC romero like ceiling being within reach of vasquez.
i've always liked gavin floyd. his curve still looks awesome, while his fastball is average, but one dimensional. floyd has added a cut fastball, but unless this pitch, or his changeup take a step forward, his ceiling is going to be a 4th starter. he'll continue to give up tons of homeruns, as an effect of both his straight fastball, and his pitching half his games in a bandbox known as new comiskey.
i still don't have a good feel for gio gonzalez. i can't see him as a power pitcher in the rotation, and i think his effectiveness would diminish greatly if his K rate fell to the 6-7 range, which is where i see it at the major league level. i don't want to pigeonhole him as a reliever, but i think if he gets called up in 2008, that's the role he should fill, with a possible rotation spot in 2009 if he is successful. a pitcher that i've looked at already, wandy rodriguez, has the same profile as gonzalez, a plus curve bordering on plus-plus, with a slightly above average fastball, and a workable changeup, coming from a frame under 6'. rodriguez's K rate spiked in 2007 at about 8 per 9 IP, and i see that as being the peak for gonzalez, which is why i have a hard time seeing him as a successful power pitcher.
Spotlight: John Danks
danks' days as a power pitcher are over. his fastball and slurve are both average pitches, coming in at 89-92 and 75-78 respectively, while his inconsistency with both pitches is going to drag down his peripherals. his changeup is a quality pitch that averages around 5-8 MPH less than his fastball, and mimics it's break and drop effectively.
danks has a lot of trouble locating his fastball, and doesn't seem to throw it with any discernible underlying purpose. he throws it all over the strikezone with little regard to placing it high/low/inside/outside.
i don't view danks so much as a pitcher, but more as a guy who makes a living hurling a ball in the general vicinity of an imaginary square 60'6" away from his left arm.
Sunday, December 9, 2007
2008 St. Louis Cardinals Organizational Depth Report
rank...name...position...ETA
1. chris perez, RHRP - 2008
2. adam ottavino, RHSP - late 2009
3. tyler herron, RHSP - 2010
4. p.j. walters, RHSP - mid 2009
5. jaime garcia, LHSP - mid 2009
6. clayton mortensen, RHSP - mid 2010
7. eddie degerman, RHRP - mid 2009
8. luke gregerson, RHRP - mid 2008
9. kyle mcclellan, RHRP - september 2008
10.jess todd, RHP - 2010
this system is quite pathetic. i don't think that's news to anyone, least of all cardinals management. they've clearly made it an imperative to stock the system with arms that are capable of moving through the system quickly as 7 of the 10 arms i've listed are college draftees taken in the last two years. in my opinion, that is as close to an admission of expected decline as an organization will ever get. they are in need of a rebuild, but they have no reinforcements immediately available.
i like chris perez alot. his walk rate will be high when he first gets called up, but i think it should settle in around 4 per 9 IP once he gets acclimated to the major leagues. his K rate should be outstanding, and the combination of the two should place him in the back end of st. louis' bullpen for many years to come.
i like p.j. walters, but as he advanced up the minor league ladder his GB rates were in a steady decline. if he can maintain a GB/FB rate of around 1.4, he projects as a league average starter, but if the decline in his rates continues in 2008, it'll be alot harder for him to stick.
spotlight: IOU
there is noone on this list that i have video and statistics of, so it'd be hard for me to give a the kind of indepth look that i try to provide in this article. when i do get aroubnd to it, i will likely be looking at 26 year old pitcher, adam wainwright.
1. chris perez, RHRP - 2008
2. adam ottavino, RHSP - late 2009
3. tyler herron, RHSP - 2010
4. p.j. walters, RHSP - mid 2009
5. jaime garcia, LHSP - mid 2009
6. clayton mortensen, RHSP - mid 2010
7. eddie degerman, RHRP - mid 2009
8. luke gregerson, RHRP - mid 2008
9. kyle mcclellan, RHRP - september 2008
10.jess todd, RHP - 2010
this system is quite pathetic. i don't think that's news to anyone, least of all cardinals management. they've clearly made it an imperative to stock the system with arms that are capable of moving through the system quickly as 7 of the 10 arms i've listed are college draftees taken in the last two years. in my opinion, that is as close to an admission of expected decline as an organization will ever get. they are in need of a rebuild, but they have no reinforcements immediately available.
i like chris perez alot. his walk rate will be high when he first gets called up, but i think it should settle in around 4 per 9 IP once he gets acclimated to the major leagues. his K rate should be outstanding, and the combination of the two should place him in the back end of st. louis' bullpen for many years to come.
i like p.j. walters, but as he advanced up the minor league ladder his GB rates were in a steady decline. if he can maintain a GB/FB rate of around 1.4, he projects as a league average starter, but if the decline in his rates continues in 2008, it'll be alot harder for him to stick.
spotlight: IOU
there is noone on this list that i have video and statistics of, so it'd be hard for me to give a the kind of indepth look that i try to provide in this article. when i do get aroubnd to it, i will likely be looking at 26 year old pitcher, adam wainwright.
Saturday, December 8, 2007
LOOK OUT FOR: rule 5 edition
randor bierd, RHRP, BAL (via DET)
bierd is the embodiment of a prototypical rule 5 draftee. he has a big, rugged frame, and a plus fastball, which combine to give him an adequate shot to withstand a season in the major leagues at a time in which he doesn't belong. what makes bierd a subject for this piece is that, in addition to his plus fastball, he's also exhibited good control in a half season at AA, which will be of great importance in the major leagues. of all the players selected in this phase of the rule 5 draft, bierd is the one i like most because of this combination, along with his being selected by baltimore, a team with no incentive to expose, rush, or hang out to dry this prospect.
lincoln holdzkom, RHRP, PHI (via BOS)
another big body, with a big fastball holdzkom is a lot less likely to have a successful career than bierd is. holdzkom has been held back by arm injuries in 2004 and 2005, and he has yet to regain any semblance of control, which is a major limiting factor when projecting his future. he's going to get a chance to win a spot with philadelphia, though, because of his ability to induce the most favorable outcome, and if he can keep his BB rate under 5 or 6 per 9 IP, he would still have some of value in the national league.
Jose Capellan, LHP, SF (via BOS)
capellan is a LH version of randor bierd, but 2 years younger, and with no full season experience. his solid 6'2" frame allows him to throw his sinking fastball with plus downward tilt, resulting in the most favorable outcome. he also has a raw changeup with plus characteristics, which helps to keep righthanded batters honest. i don't expect capellan to last very long at the major league level, and i think SF will go to great lengths to keep capellan on the disabled list.
bierd is the embodiment of a prototypical rule 5 draftee. he has a big, rugged frame, and a plus fastball, which combine to give him an adequate shot to withstand a season in the major leagues at a time in which he doesn't belong. what makes bierd a subject for this piece is that, in addition to his plus fastball, he's also exhibited good control in a half season at AA, which will be of great importance in the major leagues. of all the players selected in this phase of the rule 5 draft, bierd is the one i like most because of this combination, along with his being selected by baltimore, a team with no incentive to expose, rush, or hang out to dry this prospect.
lincoln holdzkom, RHRP, PHI (via BOS)
another big body, with a big fastball holdzkom is a lot less likely to have a successful career than bierd is. holdzkom has been held back by arm injuries in 2004 and 2005, and he has yet to regain any semblance of control, which is a major limiting factor when projecting his future. he's going to get a chance to win a spot with philadelphia, though, because of his ability to induce the most favorable outcome, and if he can keep his BB rate under 5 or 6 per 9 IP, he would still have some of value in the national league.
Jose Capellan, LHP, SF (via BOS)
capellan is a LH version of randor bierd, but 2 years younger, and with no full season experience. his solid 6'2" frame allows him to throw his sinking fastball with plus downward tilt, resulting in the most favorable outcome. he also has a raw changeup with plus characteristics, which helps to keep righthanded batters honest. i don't expect capellan to last very long at the major league level, and i think SF will go to great lengths to keep capellan on the disabled list.
2008 Milwaukee Brewers Orgnaizational Depth Report
rank...name...position...ETA
1. yovani gallardo, RHSP
2. luis pena, RHRP, april 2008
3. manny parra, LHSP
4. zack jackson, LHSP
5. zack braddock, LHSP, mid 2009
6. mike mcclendon, RHSP, late 2009 *SLEEPER*
7. carlos villanueva, RHP
8. jeremy jeffress, RHSP, late 2009
9. dave johnson, RHRP, early 2009
10.chris cody, LHSP, 2009
the three pieces in this organization that really stick out to me are luis pena, mike mcclendon, and zack braddock. all three are big bodies, and all three have plus fastballs of different varieties. pena features a blazing 4 seam fastball that can reach the high 90s, mcclendon features a two seamer with solid downward tilt, which results in a high percentage of groundouts, while braddock features a prototypical power lefty repertoir of mid 90s fastball, and mid 70s curve.
dave johnson is in the same boat as mcclendon, in that he throw a hard 2 seam fastball on a downward plane that induces the most favorable outcome of a groundball. his breaking ball, though is not on the same level.
Spotlight: Carlos Villanueva
villanueva features a remarkably unspectacular fastball, which goes with his remarkably unspectacular curve, and his remarkably unspectacular changeup. he works quickly, and he has minimal deception in his windup. he shows typical splits as a RHP versus lefthanded and righthanded batters.
villanueva is lucky, though. there has never been a better time to be a pitcher with so little intrigue. the fact that there is nothing that makes villanueva stand out means that he has two advantages. 1) there is no reason to test him to see what his limits are as far as innings pitched, or games played is concerned. as a pitcher with hundreds of comparable predecessors with regards to both stuff and performance, his limits are well known. 2) he has value for all teams, regardless of whether they are in the midst of a championship run or in the beginning of a 4 year rebuilding process.
i don't know whether villanueva will stick in the rotation, or find himself in the bullpen in 2008, but i suspect that he can be successful in either role. i think milwaukee has a few brighter options to look at as starters before villanueva gets a chance, but if that's the case, that would be more of a result of looking for the higher upside talent, than taking the safe route of villanueva.
1. yovani gallardo, RHSP
2. luis pena, RHRP, april 2008
3. manny parra, LHSP
4. zack jackson, LHSP
5. zack braddock, LHSP, mid 2009
6. mike mcclendon, RHSP, late 2009 *SLEEPER*
7. carlos villanueva, RHP
8. jeremy jeffress, RHSP, late 2009
9. dave johnson, RHRP, early 2009
10.chris cody, LHSP, 2009
the three pieces in this organization that really stick out to me are luis pena, mike mcclendon, and zack braddock. all three are big bodies, and all three have plus fastballs of different varieties. pena features a blazing 4 seam fastball that can reach the high 90s, mcclendon features a two seamer with solid downward tilt, which results in a high percentage of groundouts, while braddock features a prototypical power lefty repertoir of mid 90s fastball, and mid 70s curve.
dave johnson is in the same boat as mcclendon, in that he throw a hard 2 seam fastball on a downward plane that induces the most favorable outcome of a groundball. his breaking ball, though is not on the same level.
Spotlight: Carlos Villanueva
villanueva features a remarkably unspectacular fastball, which goes with his remarkably unspectacular curve, and his remarkably unspectacular changeup. he works quickly, and he has minimal deception in his windup. he shows typical splits as a RHP versus lefthanded and righthanded batters.
villanueva is lucky, though. there has never been a better time to be a pitcher with so little intrigue. the fact that there is nothing that makes villanueva stand out means that he has two advantages. 1) there is no reason to test him to see what his limits are as far as innings pitched, or games played is concerned. as a pitcher with hundreds of comparable predecessors with regards to both stuff and performance, his limits are well known. 2) he has value for all teams, regardless of whether they are in the midst of a championship run or in the beginning of a 4 year rebuilding process.
i don't know whether villanueva will stick in the rotation, or find himself in the bullpen in 2008, but i suspect that he can be successful in either role. i think milwaukee has a few brighter options to look at as starters before villanueva gets a chance, but if that's the case, that would be more of a result of looking for the higher upside talent, than taking the safe route of villanueva.
Tuesday, December 4, 2007
2008 Chicago Cubs Organizational Depth Report
rank...name...position...ETA
1. carlos marmol, RHRP
2. sean gallagher, RHSP
3. donald veal, LHSP - mid 2009
4. sean marshall, LHSP
5. jeff samardzija, RHSP - late 2008
6. mitch atkins, RHSP - 2009
7. carmen pignatiello, LHRP
8. rocky roquet, RHRP - mid 2008
9. mark holliman, RHSP - 2009
10.jacob renshaw, RHSP - 2011
after samardzija, the list peters out. atkins is okay if he's your team's 7th starting option going into the season. pignatiello is an alright reliever. roquet is an intriguing minor league reliever. i'm not optimistic about holliman's future. renshaw is young and projectable, which doesn't really belong on this list, but there is noone better to include.
marmol is someone that i had pegged to breakout in 2007. my having an accurate read on his situation is part of the reason why i started this site. i feel that the markers that i look for are a significantly more accurate predictor of future success than any of the projection systems or any of the traditional scouting methods. time will tell whether my confidence is warranted, but for now, i'm content to plug away.
i see sean gallagher as more of a 3/4 innings eater than a top of the rotation ace. i think his value to the cubs is mostly as a trade chip, but i'm not too close to the situation to know whether the cubs feel the same way.
Spotlight: Sean Marshall
marshall had most of his success in 2007 against aggressive lineups. this is because marshall pitches backwards. he throws his slightly above average curve ball and his deceptive changeup early in the count, and finishes hitters off with his fringe/average fastball. he's right at the line between junkballer and cunning lefty, with the difference being that he's 6'7" tall, which gives hitters a fraction of a second less time to recognize which offering is coming at them.
aggressive hitters will tend to jump on the first offering, and mostly make poor contact. patient hitters will wait him out, and take advantage of his still developing control. as it is, he's very susceptible to baserunners in this situation, but if he can hone his command a notch or two, he has a good future ahead of him, bouncing around the national league.
if he ever finds himself in the AL east, however, expect a round number to locate itself next to his name, in the ERA column.
1. carlos marmol, RHRP
2. sean gallagher, RHSP
3. donald veal, LHSP - mid 2009
4. sean marshall, LHSP
5. jeff samardzija, RHSP - late 2008
6. mitch atkins, RHSP - 2009
7. carmen pignatiello, LHRP
8. rocky roquet, RHRP - mid 2008
9. mark holliman, RHSP - 2009
10.jacob renshaw, RHSP - 2011
after samardzija, the list peters out. atkins is okay if he's your team's 7th starting option going into the season. pignatiello is an alright reliever. roquet is an intriguing minor league reliever. i'm not optimistic about holliman's future. renshaw is young and projectable, which doesn't really belong on this list, but there is noone better to include.
marmol is someone that i had pegged to breakout in 2007. my having an accurate read on his situation is part of the reason why i started this site. i feel that the markers that i look for are a significantly more accurate predictor of future success than any of the projection systems or any of the traditional scouting methods. time will tell whether my confidence is warranted, but for now, i'm content to plug away.
i see sean gallagher as more of a 3/4 innings eater than a top of the rotation ace. i think his value to the cubs is mostly as a trade chip, but i'm not too close to the situation to know whether the cubs feel the same way.
Spotlight: Sean Marshall
marshall had most of his success in 2007 against aggressive lineups. this is because marshall pitches backwards. he throws his slightly above average curve ball and his deceptive changeup early in the count, and finishes hitters off with his fringe/average fastball. he's right at the line between junkballer and cunning lefty, with the difference being that he's 6'7" tall, which gives hitters a fraction of a second less time to recognize which offering is coming at them.
aggressive hitters will tend to jump on the first offering, and mostly make poor contact. patient hitters will wait him out, and take advantage of his still developing control. as it is, he's very susceptible to baserunners in this situation, but if he can hone his command a notch or two, he has a good future ahead of him, bouncing around the national league.
if he ever finds himself in the AL east, however, expect a round number to locate itself next to his name, in the ERA column.
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