"Pitching has got to be the foundation in the organization. Everybody wants a good pitcher. The more pitchers we have, the stronger our organization will be."
- Dayton Moore, Kansas City Royals General Manager

Thursday, February 7, 2008

2008 San Diego Padres Organizational Depth Report

rank...name...position...ETA
1. matt latos, RHSP - august 2009
2. clay meredith, RHRP
3. wade leblanc, LHSP - september 2008
4. justin germano, RHSP
5. cory luebke, LHSP - august 2008
6. matthew buschman, RHSP - june 2009
7. will inman, RHSP - september 2008
8. cesar carillo, RHSP - august 2009
9. stephen faris, RHSP - september 2010
10.matt bush, RHRP - 2010


this organization is highly disappointing. i have a lot of respect for all that sandy alderson has done in this game, however, i cannot support their decision to buy into bud selig's bill of goods with regards to the amateur draft. i understand his loyalty to bud, and i respect it, however, it is absolutely clear that there is no choice when it comes to deciding between towing the line by sticking to slot bonuses, and busting slot by going after the best available player.

what is best for the league, and what is simplest for the league would be to allow teams to trade their draft picks, which would mean that teams like colorado and pittsburgh could receive extra assets for selecting a lower tier player in the top half of the first round. i can't imagine that jayson heyward or rick porcello would have stayed on the board as long as they had if a team like the yankees was able to trade into the top 10 to get porcello ahead of the red sox or tigers, or if the phillies were able to trade up from 19 to get ahead of the reds and take devin mesoraco, or ahead of the braves to get jason heyward. draft day would be much more interesting if this relatively small change were made to the process.

as it is, san diego appears to have taken the easy way out, with regards to drafting pitchers. they have taken the low ceiling, low bonus route to building depth through their organization, which is understandable considering the ease with which league average pitchers can dominate in their home park, but weak in that they will never win in the playoffs because of it. i like matt latos, but there is noone in this organization that is a good bet to be more than just adequate.

Spotlight: Justin Germano

germano features a mid 80s sinker that can be thrown as hard as 91, though it's more effective when in the 84-88 range. his changeup plays well off of his sinker, and comes in at around 76-79 MPH. i actually really like germano's curveball. it's a really slow, big breaking barry zito like curveball that plays extremely well off of his sinker/changeup. his curve is his primary secondary pitch, and germano is not at all afraid to throw it in tight counts.

germano's splits are surprising to say the least. though he pitches half his games in a yellowstone sized park, his road ERA was half a point lower than his home ERA. it's hard to say what fueled this difference, as his HR rate was almost twice as high on the road (.70 vs. 1.12 per 9 IP), his K rate was higher at home (6.33 vs. 4.29 [per 9 IP), though so was his BB rate (3.09 vs. 2.34 per 9 IP). his H rate was about the same (9.14 vs. 8.86 per 9 IP). altogether, there is no discernible reason why his home ERA was any higher, let alone half a run higher, than his road ERA.

check that. on the road, germano induced 12 GB double plays. at home he induced only 5. on the road, germano allowed only 1.24 baserunners per IP. at home, that number was 1.36.

going into 2008, what can german do better? well, he's not going to throw the ball by many hitters, with his below average fastball. and although his curve is very good, he;s not going to fool many hitters when they don;t have to worry about guessing wrong on his below average fastball. that's enough of what he won't do. what he can do is limit contact against him by continuing to throw his curve in all counts and his sinker down in the zone. what he can do is be conscious of the baserunners against him, and try to help his catcher out by throwing over to first base, after all, they are still piss poor defensive catchers out in san diego. the equation was set in the previous paragraph,

low BB rate + high GB% = success

learn it, live it, love it

4 comments:

Snuffy said...

One of the best niche sites for BB coverage on the Net. Too good to pass on to the competition.

Shhhhh.

George said...

Awesome posts, but you have 4 depth charts left and no new ones in over two weeks.

Jonesin for the next hit man.

Thanks for the quality work.

Irons said...

Yup -- like the idea, but we need some new content!

Keep up the good work.

Anonymous said...

Good job with this one. I think a lot of those guys will do well. It's funny b/c I don't really see a lot of stuff that has Faris in the same category as these guys, but if you've seen him pitch, he definitely has what it takes to make it the Bigs.

Any particular reason you think he will make it?