Variables Don't; Constants Aren't: LOOK OUT FOR: Eulogio de la Cruz

Monday, May 26, 2008

LOOK OUT FOR: Eulogio de la Cruz

i have a huge hardon for this pitcher, and he's been a favorite of mine for about a year and a half, ever since i noticed his scouting report in baseball america's 2007 prospect handbook (where de la Cruz was ranked 6th in the tigers organization). that report said that de la Cruz featured a heavy mid 90s FB that compared favorably to that of zumaya's and verlander's, while also featuring a knee bending curve. what i came to learn, though was that also featured a GB inducing changeup that is quite effective against LHBs.

the numbers backed that up, as de la Cruz had a GO:AO ratio > 2.5 (average is 1.2) in the florida state league in 2006, and it has settled in around 2.25 in the year+ since.

de la cruz got the second callup of his career this past sunday to pitch the back end of a day night doubleheader, and he pitched about as well as could be expected of a pitcher making his first career start in the majors on just 3 days rest. 3 IP, 2 ER, 1 K, 4 BB, 1 2B.

going forward, this one start should emphasize the importance for de la Cruz to get his fastball under control to the point where he can count on it in a 1-1, or a 2-0 count. that's about the only thing he can take out of this game, because putting him in a position to make that start on 3 days rest was really limited the chance of de la Cruz getting anything approaching a quality start on his record.

i blinked, by the way. i missed that he was called up, and didn't realize he'd made a start until he was sent down today.

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Organizational Depth Reports (ODRs) will be my takes on the depth of pitching for each of the 30 major league baseball teams. i'll try to feature one player in each organization and give my honest take on what i like, or what i don't. for some organizations, i will outline a sleeper who i feel is underrated or prepared to make an impact at the major league level. these sleepers will mostly be guys in the mold of chien ming wang and aaron laffey, guys who exhibit strong ground ball tendencies and low BB rates. organizations like the mets and the mariners might not have a sleeper indicated, but teams like the white and red sox have a few guys that i feel are underrated. if i've seen these pitchers throw i'll include a scouting report that is what i see, not what i've heard. the pitchers i outline will be guys on the fringe of the 25 man roster, not the cream of the crop, such as scott kazmir or cole hamels.

for the most part, 2007 draftees will not be included, however guys that i really like (blake beaven and david price) or guys that are flat out dominant (adam mills and dan duffy) will be included.

what this list attempts to do is identify the 10 pitchers who are most likely to make a positive impact at the MLB level within 3 years for each team, then rank them according to their likelihood of reaching MLB, and the impact they can have once there.

if i had to approximate the formula, it would be 3 parts upside, 1 part likelihood of making the big leagues within 3 years.

if i haven't seen a teenage pitcher that you feel deserves mentioning, feel free to comment. but if i haven't seen said pitcher in a game, and if i don't have much analytical data to go on, i find it meaningless for me to rate a pitcher that i don't have a feel for. if i don't have a feel for them, and if i have no way of approximating a feel for them, any ranking of them would be disingenuous.

after i go through all 30 organizations, i will publish my take on the top 75 professional pitchers under the age of 25. these will be the cream of the crop, the absolute best. some of the guys in that list will be established major league stars, while others will be minor leaguers that have yet to make their debut, so this is not a stereotypical prospect list, in the sense that all pitchers included are rookies, so much as a list of the 75 pitchers who will dominate baseball for the next decade.