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The online coverage of minor league baseball is vast. There is no shortage of outlets where opinions are given. The same can be said of the coverage devoted to individual MLB teams. But there has been a distinct lack of coverage for players who have exhausted their rookie eligibility. This blog sets out to change that...
if i had to approximate the formula, it would be 3 parts upside, 1 part likelihood of making the big leagues within 3 years.
if i haven't seen a teenage pitcher that you feel deserves mentioning, feel free to comment. but if i haven't seen said pitcher in a game, and if i don't have much analytical data to go on, i find it meaningless for me to rate a pitcher that i don't have a feel for. if i don't have a feel for them, and if i have no way of approximating a feel for them, any ranking of them would be disingenuous.
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i've participated in the last three mock drafts at minorleagueball.com, as the phillies scouting director. the following is the summary of 2006's draft:
1.18: chris tillman - i took him about 30 spots ahead of where he went in RL, but i think i had a decent read on him, and i do love HS pitchers with plus secondary pitches.
1. 37: max sapp - at the time, the system needed a power bat, and sapp had the most raw power in the draft. it's a shame he hasn't done anything else as a pro.
2.66: matt sulentic - another HSer with a big upside, though he looks to be a lot more polished than most HS OFs. before i even realized it, i guess that i was a big believer in the braves' philosophy of drafting.
3.97: mark sobolewski - we'll see how this pick looked this year, as i believe sob is a draft eligible sophomore at the U. for those keeping track, this is anoher HSer.
4.127: blair erickson - a not so dominant college reliever, this pick was probably a little early because erickson's scouting report had been diminishing throughout his first few years in college
5.157: andy d;allesio - another power hitter, i'm not too proud of this pick. i've since subscribed to the belief that it is a huge mistake to draft 1B early, and this pick could have been better used on someone with a modicum of projection left.
and 2007:
1.19: justin jackson - the 2007 draft was severely lacking in 5 tool talents, so when my pick came up in the first round, i overdrafted one that i thought could really play. i'm still confident in his ability, but as i said, i overdrafted.
1.37: john lucroy - again, another solid C. i really like lucroy's bat, and i decided to pull the trigger on him here because i had heard his defense was steadily improving to the point where he could likely stay at C.
2.83: victor sanchez - i really liked his glove, andh i felt that it would be good enough to carry him up the ladder as he advanced, even if his bat was disappointing. went to san diego
3.107: steven neff - projectable HS lefty. went to south carolina
3.113: cory gearrin - obligatory college reliever. has disappointed in pro ball
4.143: marcus davis - another immensely talented athlete, davis has performed fairly well in pro ball, though as a college hitter in low A, that is to be expected.
5.173: brett krill - toolsy HS OF. went to UCLA
this draft is going to take a while to flesh out. it could go any number of ways, because of the 3 players that chose to go the college route.
and 2008:
24: tyson ross, RHSP, california – there’s nothing special about him,and i don’t think he’ll ever be great, but with savery and hamels likely to be in the rotation for many years to come, i think a GB inducing workhorse like ross would be a great compliment. i was close to selecting casey kelly, but i decided to just go with my instincts and take the player i liked most.
34: zach stewart, RHRP, texas tech – this pick wasn’t a reach, but with lindblom available at 71, taking stewart here wasn’t really necessary. isaac galloway would have been a much better fit.
51: zach putnam, RHSP, michigan – see tyson ross. if putnam were 4 inches taller, they’d be the same pitcher.
71: josh lindblom, RHRP, purdue – the guy i wanted here, tyson sample, was taken about 10 slots earlier. i could have taken eric thames, or wade miley here, both of whom i had rated at this position, but i decided to go with the college reliever for some reason. i’m not usually a velocity whore, but i sold out for one here.
102: scott green, RHP, kentucky – see tyson ross. if green ever develops a changeup, this would be a great value pick.
110: derrick gibson, SS, DE – ask JE.
136: BJ hermsen, RHP, IA – ask JE
166: jason knapp, RHP, NJ – ask JE
i’m pretty proud of the first 5 picks, even though i did not correctly anticipate the RP situation and i could have easily had one of eric thames or isaac galloway instead of two RPs. i don’t have nearly enough information on the last 3 to brag about landing them, but i figured they were all pretty high upside youngsters, and with the first 5 picks all being college pitchers, upside was the preeminent doctrine behind those last 3 picks.
comparing my mock drafts to the phillies real drafts is kind of hard because so many of the players that i've drafted have gone the college route. also, my propensity to take college relievers hasn't yet served me well. i'll probably keep that in mind when i start prepping for 2009.
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