thoughts on drew naylor

this past wednesday, i made the trip to lakewood with the express purpose of watching drew naylor pitch. i was not disappointed. while his fastball only sat in the mid 80s touching 91, his curve was tremendous, and was well worth the trip. he showed the ability to both spot it for a strike, and bury it in the dirt. it is already a major league quality pitch.

naylor's changeup was mostly a show me pitch, but it did show the potential to be a quality major league offering. naylor was able to use it to record the most favorable outcome, as well as to generate missed swings. he was not yet able to consistently locate it in the strike zone, but that's a pretty minor quibble for a low A pitcher.

i could scan and post my charts, but i don't think i want to do that, so i'll just throw out the same information i gave for masterson last august:

total (65/95) 30 batters faced
pitch strikes total percentage
fastball  43    63     68
changeup  12    16     75
curve     10    16     63

vs. LHB (22/33) 10 batters faced
pitch strikes total percentage
fastball  13    22     59
changeup   5     6     83
curve      4     5     80


vs. RHB (43/62) 20 batters faced
pitch strikes total percentage
fastball  30    41     73
changeup   7    10     70
curve      6    11     55

i managed to get some video during the game, but it's not of very high quality, just good enough to make out some basic mechanics, but not good enough to view the track of the ball in flight.






lasting impressions were that if he gains 2 or 3 miles per hour on his fastball in the next few years, and sits easily at 88-92, touching 94, instead of 85-88, touching 91, he'll be a great pitcher. that's not an easy proposition, but give him 2 years to grow, fill out, and stay healthy, pitching in the minors, and it's not that far fetched an expectation.

LOOK OUT FOR: rule 5 edition

randor bierd, RHRP, BAL (via DET)

bierd is the embodiment of a prototypical rule 5 draftee. he has a big, rugged frame, and a plus fastball, which combine to give him an adequate shot to withstand a season in the major leagues at a time in which he doesn't belong. what makes bierd a subject for this piece is that, in addition to his plus fastball, he's also exhibited good control in a half season at AA, which will be of great importance in the major leagues. of all the players selected in this phase of the rule 5 draft, bierd is the one i like most because of this combination, along with his being selected by baltimore, a team with no incentive to expose, rush, or hang out to dry this prospect.


lincoln holdzkom, RHRP, PHI (via BOS)

another big body, with a big fastball holdzkom is a lot less likely to have a successful career than bierd is. holdzkom has been held back by arm injuries in 2004 and 2005, and he has yet to regain any semblance of control, which is a major limiting factor when projecting his future. he's going to get a chance to win a spot with philadelphia, though, because of his ability to induce the most favorable outcome, and if he can keep his BB rate under 5 or 6 per 9 IP, he would still have some of value in the national league.

Jose Capellan, LHP, SF (via BOS)

capellan is a LH version of randor bierd, but 2 years younger, and with no full season experience. his solid 6'2" frame allows him to throw his sinking fastball with plus downward tilt, resulting in the most favorable outcome. he also has a raw changeup with plus characteristics, which helps to keep righthanded batters honest. i don't expect capellan to last very long at the major league level, and i think SF will go to great lengths to keep capellan on the disabled list.

2008 Philadelphia Phillies Organizational Depth Report

rank...name...position...ETA
1. cole hamels, LHSP
2. carlos carrasco, RHSP - late 2008
3. josh outman, LHSP - mid 2008
4. kyle kendrick, RHSP
5. edgar garcia, RHSP - 2010
6. drew carpenter, RHSP - may 2009
7. james happ, LHSP - mid 2008
8. antonio bastardo, LHSP - 2010
9. fabio castro, LHSP
10.scott mathieson, RHSP - mid 2008

the phillies organization has created a lot of depth by finally diving into the latin american markets. carrasco, garcia, and bastardo were all products of the team's latin american academies, and the pipeline has only just started, as the organization's dominican summer league affiliate had a conglomerated ERA more than a half a run lower than league average, with their rotation having players aged 17, 17, 18, 19, 21. unfortunately, none of those prospects appear to be ready to head stateside in 2008, so while this is the tree that keeps on giving, the fruit might not start ripening until 2010.

i am very high on carlos carrasco, but i have a slight concern that he's been overused these last 2 years. he's thrown 300 combined innings since 2006 opened, and i never like to see that many innings on a teenage arm. scouting wise, he varies the speed of his fastball, so it sits from 88-93, but he has little problem revving it up to 95. his changeup is his best pitch, and when he's on, he is flat out dominating, not just because of his stuff, but because of his insistance on varying the speed of his best two pitches. the whole is most definitely greater than the sum of it's parts.

james happ had a relatively horrible season in 2008, and that is mostly due to the collapse of his BB rate. he is not a good enough pitcher, and he is not a good enough thrower to be able to succeed with a BB rate around 4.5/9 IP. i think his BB rate will regress to about 3.5/9 IP, but if it doesn't get under 3, he has very little value.

scott mathieson received inclusion to this list based on his tremendous fastball-slider combination, but it should be noted that he is still recovering from TJ surgery, and he likely won't be fully healthy until september of 2008.

also receiving consideration were kyle drabek and mike zagurski, who both underwent TJ surgery during this season *edit: zagurski had season ending surgery for a torn hamstring, not TJ surgery.* drabek would have slotted in at 4 if healthy, and zagurski would have fought for the 10th spot, but would likely have fallen short.

i did not include savery because i don't have a good enough feel for him. as a philly resident, i was against the pick at first, because of the torn labrum that he suffered as a result of a bone growth in his shoulder, but i have since been assuaged of that feeling. if the phillies team doctor's did their jobs (which considering the joe borowski and freddy garcia situations is a big if) savery should be a very good acquisition for the phils. savery would rank behind outman, but ahead of drabek, if i included him in this list. my reasoning for not including savery can be found on the sidebar to the right.


Spotlight: Kyle Kendrick

Kendrick's fastball is his bread and butter. whereas carlos carrasco, kendrick's 2006 teammate at low A lakewood, creates unease in the minds of opposing hitters by changing speeds on his fastball and changeup, kendrick creates unease by sinking, cutting, and running his low 90s fastball in, down, and off the plate versus left and right handed batters.

kendrick also features a slider that sits in the mid 80s. he doesn't really use it as a strikeout pitch, but instead as more of a show me pitch. his changeup is also a show me pitch, at best.

getting runs on the board against him doesn't seem to be that difficult a task if batters have the right mindset stepping up to the plate. short compact swings will have the most success against kendrick because of his propensity for pitching to contact, and their willingness to take it. players with longer swings will have more trouble against kendrick as a result of their having significantly less time to identify and react to whichever variation of his fastball is coming. this leads to exactly what kendrick wants, weak contact and foul balls.

kendrick pitches most every game, every inning in the danger zone, but so long as he pitches his home games in a bandbox, where hitters are preoccupied with sending a ball over the wall, he should be a quality starter, and a quality innings eater.

Ryan Madson

originally posted on april 19, 2007

raw stats:

year   IP   K    BB   HR   H     ERA
2004   77   55   19    6   68    2.34
2005   87   75   25   11   84    4.15
2006  134   99   50   20  176    5.69

looking deeper:

year   DICE   BABIP   WHIP
2004   3.56   .276    1.21
2005   3.74   .299    1.25
2006   4.58   .358    1.69

madson was great in 2004. by any metric, he was a very good relief pitcher. in 2005, madson was still pretty good, but his homerun rate climbed from its 2004 level, as did his hit rate.

if looking at the lines from 2004 and 2005, it would be within reason to have expected madson to bounce back in 2006. his babip was moderately high in the 2005 season, and if it regressed back to league average levels, he would have remained a slightly above league average pitcher.

but it didn't regress. it became even more of a statistical outlier. the average major league BABIP is between .270 and .290. there is very little variation in this number because the amount of control that an individual pitcher has over balls in play is extremely limited.

a .358 BABIP is all but unheard of; it indicates something that goes beyond luck, something that happens while madson was on the mound that caused balls in play to fall in for hits at a higher than normal rate.

but is this outlier unique to ryan madson? here's a look at the phillies three other right handed relievers that logged 50 innings:

last name    BABIP   ERA
geary       .330     2.96
gordon      .303     3.34
franklin    .284     4.58

geary has the exact same bloated batting average on balls in play (BABIP) that madson has. gordon's is also a little high. franklin's is significant only in that he had the potential of having an era north of 6 were his BABIP were more in line with the rest of the staff.

i'll be monitoring this effect more as this season goes on, and the sample sizes grow. right now, i'm not quite sure how these numbers will affect madson and geary in 2007.

Where does madson go from here?

as much as i talked about it in this posting, BABIP was not madson's only problem. his k rate dropped, while his BB and HR rate rose. this combination alone would have made for a mediocre season regardless of BABIP. so, what can be done to return madson to his 2004 form?

1. madson cannot go back to throwing only his fastball and changeup. he needs to develop a third pitch. i don't think a curveball is the right pitch for him because of its similar velocity to his changeup. i'd be thinking more along the lines of a cut fastball or a sinker that would be about 4-5 MPH off from his fastball and 10-15 MPH off from his changeup. this pitch would not be a strikeout pitch, per se, but more of a pitch that he can rely on to limit the amount of contact that hitters can make off of him.

2. madson should be put back into a situation where he can log a significant amount of innings. whether it is in kansas city, tampa bay, or ottawa, doesn't much matter, but what is important is that he should not continue to function in a 6th/7th inning role. that is not going to help him get back to his 2004 form.

Question: Why does this blog exist?

Answer: JD Durbin.


Durbin came into spring training this year as the twins 10th best prospect, as rated by Baseball America. He was out of options, so he would either have to make the team outright, or pass through waivers to get to AAA.

Durbin didn't make the opening day roster and on March 29, the Minnesota Twins designated Durbin for assignment to AAA. Before he got there, he was claimed by the Arizona Diamondbacks on waivers, and made the trip out to Arizona for one appearance, in which he allowed 7 runs on 7 hits in the span of 2/3 of an inning. Not surprisingly, he was waived by the diamondbacks the next day.

Durbin was claimed again, this time by the red sox, and spent 4 days waiting to be added to their 40 man roster. But that didn't happen, and he was designated for assignment again on April 11.

The Phillies picked Durbin up on waivers and attempted the same procedure. This time Durbin passed through untouched, and he was assigned to AAA Ottawa. He has yet to report.


As evidenced by the fact that he was claimed on waivers by 3 different teams in the span of 3 weeks, Durbin has good value. There are general managers and scouts who think that, at some point in the near future, Durbin will be an effective major league ballplayer.

It’s just that none of them, other than Josh Byrnes, were willing to put their necks on the line and let him get some innings at the major league level to work through his issues.

Durbin threw 89 innings in AAA last season at a 2.33 era. Thanks to his page at minorleaguesplits.com, we can see that he has three faces that come out in different situations:

Vs. LHB:

Against LHB, Durbin dominates the pace of the game. His K and BB rates are both significantly above league average, but the rest of his line is wholly unremarkable. He seems to use all of his pitches, but his location is mediocre. If AAA batters swing, they K or put the ball into play weakly. If they’re patient, they walk.

Vs. RHB:

Against RHB, Durbin pitches to contact. He gets a lot of pop-ups and he gets a lot of line drives. He seems to primarily throw a heavy fastball, which limits the amount of outfield flies, but increases every other batted ball event.

W/ Men on base:

In this situation, Durbin seems to lose control. He allows a lot of baserunners and he throws a lot of pitches, but hitters don’t seem to be able to drive his pitches. He gets by on his raw stuff alone, which works well in AAA, but won’t cut it in the majors.

What can he do to improve?

Here’s the problem: Durbin has no control of his changeup. His curveball is an effective out pitch, but again, he can’t locate it for a strike. He has also had labrum issues, which makes it likely that his command issues are not entirely within his control.

But, his fastball is really nice, and would be an effective pitch if he could develop a secondary pitch to keep hitters off balance.

Were he willing to put his career on the line, I would suggest that he throw his curveball early and often when he gets back to AAA. If he could turn his curve into a reliable secondary pitch that he can locate for a strike, he could be an effective bullpen arm in the major leagues for as long as his arm held together.