2008 Detroit Tigers Organizational Depth Report

rank...name...position...ETA
1. justin verlander, RHSP
2. jeremy bonderman, RHSP
*. andrew miller, LHSP *TRADED TO FLA*
*. eulogio de la cruz, RHSP *TRADED TO FLA*
*. jair jurrjens, RHSP *TRADED TO ATL*
3. rick porcello, RHSP - mid 2009
*. randor bierd, RHRP - april 2008 *RULE 5 DRAFTEE BY BAL*
4. joel zumaya, RHRP
*. dallas trahern, RHSP *TRADED TO FLA
5. macay mcbride, LHRP
6. brett jensen, RHRP - 2010
7. yorman bazardo, RHSP
8. jeff gerbe, RHRP - september 2008
9. duane below, LHSP - mid 2010
10.brendan wise, RHRP - september 2009


with all of the movement in this system, i wanted to make sure to include not only 10 players currently in detroit's farm system, but also where the departed would have ranked in comparison.

the toughest part of ranking this system was putting jurrjens behind eulogio de la cruz. i am a huge fan of eulogio de, and i think he has a big future ahead of him, but while i project him as a starter, it doesn't look like he's going to get a true opportunity to fight for that role. i see eulogio and randor bierd as very similar players, with both having plus velocity on their fastballs, both having occasional struggles with walks, and both having strong GB tendencies. the difference between bierd and eulogio de is minimal, with my ranking of eulogio being more bias than projection or intuition.

i think brett jensen is an arm to watch because of his huge frame and his deceptive fastball. i don't think duane below's K rate will hold up at higher levels, but if he can learn a little bit about how to create an advantage as a lefthander by holding baserunners he will have a chance to stick. jeff gerbe is a big arm that induces a lot of GBs. his K rate is going to hold him back, but everything else is a nice package.

i have a hard time looking at rick porcello, and projecting him forward because he has yet to debut in professional baseball, and i always have a hard time projecting high school pitchers because of the relative uncertainty with regards to competitive levels in high school, mechanical and conditioning issues, and any other number of unforeseen issues that 18 year olds inevitably find themselves in. the mid 2009 projection for porcello's ETA is based on his being healthy and his being as good as his draft reports claims. i have significant doubt about both.


Spotlight: Jeremy Bonderman

i've always been a fan of bonderman, and the progression that he's made since first debuting in the majors as a 20 year old has been a textbook case of a young pitcher coming of age over time. coming into 2007, his HR rate had improved in each season, as had his K/BB ratio, and his ERA. his WHIP had fluctuated with little respect to any trend, but in 2006, he had a career best 1.299.

as for 2007, bonderman started out with a bang, once again building on his previous year's improvements. in the first half of 07, bonderman had a 98/24/106 K/BB/IP rate with a 3.48 ERA over that span. interestingly enough, over his career, bonderman's ERA is a full run lower in the first half than it is in the second (this trend is especially pronounced in the last three years).

overall in 2007, bonderman's fastball sat in the 92-94 range, hitting 96 at times. his slider has always been his bread and butter, generating plenty of swinging strikes and limiting contact from opposing batters. in 2007 he threw his slider more than any other american league pitcher by a wide margin, according to baseball info solutions (35% to 23% from 2nd ranked teammate nate robertson). bonderman is not without company in that area, though, as both john smoltz and ian snell were in that range as national league starters.

looking forward to 2008, alarm bells are ringing. firstly, i don't believe bonderman's postseason starts in 2006 had a major effect on him in 2007, nor do i believe that his 2nd half struggles over the course of his career are a conditioning issue. but that being said, i think it's clear that he cannot continue to throw the volume of sliders that he has thrown in the last 3 years. i don't mind a pitcher throwing a slider, as i feel that it is a tremendously effective pitch, but i also think it has a strong negative effect on the health of any arm that throws it, and seeing as how bonderman throws it more than any other american league pitcher, i cannot see him being a good bet for 2008. that's not to say that i think he won't be effective, as i see his production curve as continuing to improve in 2008 if healthy, but i think there is significant risk in betting on him to be healthy.

LOOK OUT FOR: rule 5 edition

randor bierd, RHRP, BAL (via DET)

bierd is the embodiment of a prototypical rule 5 draftee. he has a big, rugged frame, and a plus fastball, which combine to give him an adequate shot to withstand a season in the major leagues at a time in which he doesn't belong. what makes bierd a subject for this piece is that, in addition to his plus fastball, he's also exhibited good control in a half season at AA, which will be of great importance in the major leagues. of all the players selected in this phase of the rule 5 draft, bierd is the one i like most because of this combination, along with his being selected by baltimore, a team with no incentive to expose, rush, or hang out to dry this prospect.


lincoln holdzkom, RHRP, PHI (via BOS)

another big body, with a big fastball holdzkom is a lot less likely to have a successful career than bierd is. holdzkom has been held back by arm injuries in 2004 and 2005, and he has yet to regain any semblance of control, which is a major limiting factor when projecting his future. he's going to get a chance to win a spot with philadelphia, though, because of his ability to induce the most favorable outcome, and if he can keep his BB rate under 5 or 6 per 9 IP, he would still have some of value in the national league.

Jose Capellan, LHP, SF (via BOS)

capellan is a LH version of randor bierd, but 2 years younger, and with no full season experience. his solid 6'2" frame allows him to throw his sinking fastball with plus downward tilt, resulting in the most favorable outcome. he also has a raw changeup with plus characteristics, which helps to keep righthanded batters honest. i don't expect capellan to last very long at the major league level, and i think SF will go to great lengths to keep capellan on the disabled list.

transaction monitor

DET LHP wilfredo ledezma for ATL LHRP macay mcbride

regrettably, i like this deal a lot for both sides. mcbride is the LOOGY that detroit desperately wanted, and desperately hoped ledezma would be. except for his occasionally terminal control problems, mcbride will be a great addition to detroit's pen. i think he'll get his control problems figured out well enough to be effective, and, unlike ledezma, he'll be able to shut down left handed batters. since mcbride came off the DL, he put up this line:

12 IP, 10 H, 4 BB, 14 K, 1 HR, 3.00 era

as for what atlanta is getting, i would not be surprised in the least if ledezma turned into a cy young caliber power lefty in the mold of dan haren. in other words, i like it. i like it a lot. and i think they do too. they have been very high on macay mcbride since he was drafted in the first round in 2001, and to to get rid of him now, is by no means a negative reflection on macay mcbride. ledezma has near limitless potential, and he's already passed the injury nexus without a major incident.

i don't know whether my projection of ledezma is real, or if it's just a manifestation of 15 straight years of braves' supremacy, but i think this is a GREAT match of a player and an organization.

on deck:
i'll be weighing in on the chisox' bullpen shuffle

yorman bazardo

bazardo is not particularly interesting. he has a nice name, and he has a nice track record, but beyond that, there isn't much of note.

bazardo is only on my radar because of the fact that the Seattle Mariners general manager, Bill Bavasi, designated the 22 year old righthander for assignment just prior to the opening of spring training because there was no room on the mariner's 40 man roster. he was traded to detroit for a minor league outfielder before passing through waivers, and was added to the tigers' 40 man roster immedietly thereafter.

Raw stats:

year  age  level  ORG    IP   H     K   BB   HR
2005  21    AA  FLA/SEA 142  146   99   47   16
2006  22    AA    SEA   138  144   80   45   10
2007  23    AAA   DET    26   29   16    9    0

as i said, he's nothing special. but he's young, and we can work with it. lets look a little deeper at the possible effects of switching organizations 3 times in 3 years:


OPS with Men on Base vs Bases Empty by organization in the last 3 seasons:

ORG    Men on    bases empty
FLA    .792        .704
SEA    .678        .761
DET    .856        .651

the sample size with detroit renders their numbers almost insignificant, but even looking only at the florida and seattle numbers, it is apparent that bazardo's profile has changed over the last 2+ seasons. with florida, bazardo pitched well out of the windup, but was moderately below league average from the stretch. that trend reversed itself with seattle, but the park bazardo pitched out of leaned significantly towards favoring pitchers.


OPS vs. left and right handed batters by organization in the last 3 seasons:

ORG   vs. LHB    vs. RHB
FLA    .760       .731
SEA    .727       .780
DET    .735       .758

again, bazardo's profile has fluctuated between organizations. so, basically he's a 23 year old pitcher trying to figure out what works at the upper levels of the minors. the fact that he has had as many as 4 pitching coaches in the last 2+ seasons is probobly not a good thing, but could serve him well down the road.

so, what can he do to get better:

i'm not going to attempt to be another voice in his ear (you know, if he's the type to read newly launched blogs by philadelphia area college students). i think he should be allowed to pitch however he feels comfortable with minimal input from his pitching coach or catcher except when prompted. bazardo should be allowed to find his own style, because he's probobly heard enough suggestions from various pitching coaches in his professional career that he should already have a good idea of what he wants to do. it's his career, and he's still young enough that he will get plenty of chances to prove his worth, so long as his head is squarely on his shoulders.

as for anything more concrete, the data is too random for me to offer up a legitimate suggestion. i'll just have to see how he does with a more meaningful sample size in toledo.