Variables Don't; Constants Aren't: transaction monitor

Wednesday, June 20, 2007

transaction monitor

DET LHP wilfredo ledezma for ATL LHRP macay mcbride

regrettably, i like this deal a lot for both sides. mcbride is the LOOGY that detroit desperately wanted, and desperately hoped ledezma would be. except for his occasionally terminal control problems, mcbride will be a great addition to detroit's pen. i think he'll get his control problems figured out well enough to be effective, and, unlike ledezma, he'll be able to shut down left handed batters. since mcbride came off the DL, he put up this line:

12 IP, 10 H, 4 BB, 14 K, 1 HR, 3.00 era

as for what atlanta is getting, i would not be surprised in the least if ledezma turned into a cy young caliber power lefty in the mold of dan haren. in other words, i like it. i like it a lot. and i think they do too. they have been very high on macay mcbride since he was drafted in the first round in 2001, and to to get rid of him now, is by no means a negative reflection on macay mcbride. ledezma has near limitless potential, and he's already passed the injury nexus without a major incident.

i don't know whether my projection of ledezma is real, or if it's just a manifestation of 15 straight years of braves' supremacy, but i think this is a GREAT match of a player and an organization.

on deck:
i'll be weighing in on the chisox' bullpen shuffle

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Organizational Depth Reports (ODRs) will be my takes on the depth of pitching for each of the 30 major league baseball teams. i'll try to feature one player in each organization and give my honest take on what i like, or what i don't. for some organizations, i will outline a sleeper who i feel is underrated or prepared to make an impact at the major league level. these sleepers will mostly be guys in the mold of chien ming wang and aaron laffey, guys who exhibit strong ground ball tendencies and low BB rates. organizations like the mets and the mariners might not have a sleeper indicated, but teams like the white and red sox have a few guys that i feel are underrated. if i've seen these pitchers throw i'll include a scouting report that is what i see, not what i've heard. the pitchers i outline will be guys on the fringe of the 25 man roster, not the cream of the crop, such as scott kazmir or cole hamels.

for the most part, 2007 draftees will not be included, however guys that i really like (blake beaven and david price) or guys that are flat out dominant (adam mills and dan duffy) will be included.

what this list attempts to do is identify the 10 pitchers who are most likely to make a positive impact at the MLB level within 3 years for each team, then rank them according to their likelihood of reaching MLB, and the impact they can have once there.

if i had to approximate the formula, it would be 3 parts upside, 1 part likelihood of making the big leagues within 3 years.

if i haven't seen a teenage pitcher that you feel deserves mentioning, feel free to comment. but if i haven't seen said pitcher in a game, and if i don't have much analytical data to go on, i find it meaningless for me to rate a pitcher that i don't have a feel for. if i don't have a feel for them, and if i have no way of approximating a feel for them, any ranking of them would be disingenuous.

after i go through all 30 organizations, i will publish my take on the top 75 professional pitchers under the age of 25. these will be the cream of the crop, the absolute best. some of the guys in that list will be established major league stars, while others will be minor leaguers that have yet to make their debut, so this is not a stereotypical prospect list, in the sense that all pitchers included are rookies, so much as a list of the 75 pitchers who will dominate baseball for the next decade.