rank...name...position...ETA
1. zack greinke, RHSP
2. luke hochevar, RHSP
3. leo nunez, RHSP
4. dan duffy, LHSP - 2010
5. joakim soria, RHRP
6. kyle davies, RHSP
7. dan cortes, RHSP - mid 2009
8. jason godin, RHSP - late 2008 *sleeper*
9. rowdy hardy, LHSP - mid 2008
10.jarod plummer, RHRP - mid 2008
my tepidness on rowdy hardy should probably disavow any notion that i'm just a stat geek with a magic algorithm. hardy has a very accomplished minor league profile with an excellent BB rate and a quality hit rate. i don't think either of those will hold up at the major league level. kevin slowey learned a lesson this year that rowdy hardy should take to heart: there is a HUGE difference between command and control when you get to the top level of the profession.
i don't know what to think of hochevar. statistically, the only thing to like about his 2007 was that he was adequate in AA in his first full professional season. however, there is something in the back of my mind about his performance. i've heard rumors that hochevar was instructed by the royals organization to not throw his 2 seam fastball in the minors. that seems to be substantiated when his flyball tendencies in AA and AAA did a 180 during his september stint in the majors.
godin had back surgery in college, and lost the 2005 season as a result, but that just means two things to me: 1) there's one less year of wear on his arm and 2) he's gone through the pains of rehab, and has likely learned the importance of prevention. he seemed to tire out at the end of this season, but i'm not too concerned about that at this point. i see him peaking in 2009, so hopefully he'll get his feet wet in the majors in 2008.
Spotlight: Leo Nunez
nunez works quickly and has a loose arm. he throws a FB which hits 95 MPH and sits 90-92 with good lateral movement. his slider sits in the mid 80s with more downward tilt than lateral movement. his changeup actually has very similar movement to his slider and comes in at a few ticks slower, which could cause some trouble for hitters.
nunez featured his changeup more during his string of relief appearances in september, and i think that helped him to throw hitters off. the development of this pitch, and his still young age will allow him to make the transition to the rotation, IMO. the problem is that he hasn't started for any appreciable length of time since 2004, and that was in low A.
i'd like to see him continue in his role as a long reliever for the next year. with the royals rotation being what it is, there will be plenty of innings for him to soak up in that role, and he'll continue to gain more confidence as next year wears on. his stuff is most definitely MLB ready, and despite the way he's been handled, i think he could be a better than league average starter as soon as 2009.
this kid's on his way up.
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
Monday, October 29, 2007
back in the mood
i admit, i fell behind writing up these reports in the last two weeks. instead of pushing through it and not really giving this project my full attention, i took a week off and got my head out of the statsheet, but now, i'm getting back into the mood.
i've kept my ears perked, listening up and looking out for some good baseball analysis, but aside from dan szymborski's zips projections, i've found my itch for good reading unsatisfied.
so, i'll be posting two articles in the next two days, and hopefully 3 more by the end of the weekend. the chicago cubs and the kansas city royals appear to be the next two teams on the dockett, so spread the word.
i've kept my ears perked, listening up and looking out for some good baseball analysis, but aside from dan szymborski's zips projections, i've found my itch for good reading unsatisfied.
so, i'll be posting two articles in the next two days, and hopefully 3 more by the end of the weekend. the chicago cubs and the kansas city royals appear to be the next two teams on the dockett, so spread the word.
Sunday, October 21, 2007
2008 Florida Marlins Organizational Depth Report
rank...name...position...ETA
1. scott olsen, LHSP
2. aaron thompson, LHSP - mid 2008
3. rick vandenhurk, RHSP
4. josh johnson, RHSP
5. brett sinkbeil, RHSP - september 2008
6. renyel pinto, LHRP
7. sean west, LHSP - 2009
8. anibal sanchez, RHSP
9. gaby hernandez, RHSP, late 2008
10.ryan tucker, RHSP, mid 2009
i love what this system is doing. the 2005 draft infused a great deal of high school aged pitching to the organization. the dividends have yet to be paid, but florida seems to be timing their run for early 2009. at that time, josh johnson and anibal sanchez will be coming back from injury and should be nearing 100%, as will sean west. brett sinkbeil will be 2 full years out of college, and primed for his debut.
anibal sanchez had good value and looked to be the premier piece in florida's long term plans, but a torn labrum has d ropped his value like a rock.
this list, in particular is quite useless because of the uncertainty surrounding josh johnson, sean west, and anibal sanchez. were there no injury concerns, the top 5 would probably be johnson, west, olsen, thompson, vanden hurk.
Spotlight: Scott Olsen
scott olsen is fucked as a marlin. he is a very talented pitcher, but he runs his mouth like a little shit, which cuts his legs out from under him when he has a valid complaint. because of his run ins with marlins management, the marlins would be best off getting rid of him. but because of inherent problems in the makeup of their team, olsen's on field value is as low as a healthy, hard throwing lefty's value ever should.
those inherent problems in the makeup of the marlins are H. ramirez and M. cabrera. both are at the bottom end of the defensive spectrum at their respective positions, and neither appear likely to get much better. unfortunately for marlins pitching, those two "problems" are incapable of being worked around because of their tremendous offensive talent.
olsen throws a 2 seam fastball that sits at 90-92 MPH. his changeup comes in at around 83, and between these two pitches, olsen can flat out dominate. he's at his best when he challenges with his fastball down in the zone. again, though, the problem with approaching the game this way is that the left side of the marlins infield is swiss.
unless olsen, cabrera, or ramirez is moved, i don't see olsen getting his ERA below 5.00. he still has good stuff, and he still has good enough control, but i don't think his pitchability problems will be solved until the defense behind him is sured up.
1. scott olsen, LHSP
2. aaron thompson, LHSP - mid 2008
3. rick vandenhurk, RHSP
4. josh johnson, RHSP
5. brett sinkbeil, RHSP - september 2008
6. renyel pinto, LHRP
7. sean west, LHSP - 2009
8. anibal sanchez, RHSP
9. gaby hernandez, RHSP, late 2008
10.ryan tucker, RHSP, mid 2009
i love what this system is doing. the 2005 draft infused a great deal of high school aged pitching to the organization. the dividends have yet to be paid, but florida seems to be timing their run for early 2009. at that time, josh johnson and anibal sanchez will be coming back from injury and should be nearing 100%, as will sean west. brett sinkbeil will be 2 full years out of college, and primed for his debut.
anibal sanchez had good value and looked to be the premier piece in florida's long term plans, but a torn labrum has d ropped his value like a rock.
this list, in particular is quite useless because of the uncertainty surrounding josh johnson, sean west, and anibal sanchez. were there no injury concerns, the top 5 would probably be johnson, west, olsen, thompson, vanden hurk.
Spotlight: Scott Olsen
scott olsen is fucked as a marlin. he is a very talented pitcher, but he runs his mouth like a little shit, which cuts his legs out from under him when he has a valid complaint. because of his run ins with marlins management, the marlins would be best off getting rid of him. but because of inherent problems in the makeup of their team, olsen's on field value is as low as a healthy, hard throwing lefty's value ever should.
those inherent problems in the makeup of the marlins are H. ramirez and M. cabrera. both are at the bottom end of the defensive spectrum at their respective positions, and neither appear likely to get much better. unfortunately for marlins pitching, those two "problems" are incapable of being worked around because of their tremendous offensive talent.
olsen throws a 2 seam fastball that sits at 90-92 MPH. his changeup comes in at around 83, and between these two pitches, olsen can flat out dominate. he's at his best when he challenges with his fastball down in the zone. again, though, the problem with approaching the game this way is that the left side of the marlins infield is swiss.
unless olsen, cabrera, or ramirez is moved, i don't see olsen getting his ERA below 5.00. he still has good stuff, and he still has good enough control, but i don't think his pitchability problems will be solved until the defense behind him is sured up.
What is pitchability? You’ll get a lot of differing opinions, depending on who you talk to. Some will tell you it’s the understanding of how to exploit a hitter’s weaknesses. Some will tell you that it’s the knowledge of your own limitations and the ability to stay within your constraints as a pitcher and maximize what you have. Some will tell you it’s the ability to ignore pressure and throw the best game of your life when it really matters. I’ll tell you it’s all of the above and a whole lot more. It is what makes a pitcher successful, and everything else is secondary.
- david cameron
Saturday, October 20, 2007
2008 Los Angeles Angels Organizational Depth Report
rank...name...position...ETA
1. jered weaver, RHSP
2. nick adenhart, RHSP - 2008
3. ervin santana, RHSP
4. sean o'sullivan, RHSP - 2009
5. jordan walden, RHSP - 2010
6. nick green, RHSP - late 2008
7. ken herndon, RHSP - 2009 *sleeper*
8. brok butcher, RHSP - early 2009
9. chris resop, RHRP
10.rich thompson, RHRP - april 2008
the angels deserve a vast amount of credit for bringing into their organization as many legitimate prospects as they have, but i don't much like the career prospects of many of these pitchers if they continue along this path. sean o'sullivan threw 160 innings this year as a 19 year old. ken herndon threw 152 as a 21 year old. nick green threw 180 innings as a 23 year old.
i believe that a pitcher's major league debut should be timed to his peak in development during his age 22, 23, or 24 season. in this system, i see a lot of players peaking at that age, but i see them doing it in A and AA. i like nick green a lot, but for him to throw 180 minor league innings this past season is completely unnecessary.
there are a bunch of other pitchers in this system that deserve to be mentioned as guys to watch in 2008. those names include: aaron cook, felipe arredondo, jeremy haynes, robert fish, young-il jung.
Spotlight: Ervin Santana
santana's fastball sits 91-94, and is a 60 on the 20-80 scale. he has a bad habit of leaving it up in the zone, and he also has a tendency to reach back for some extra velocity when he is having trouble finding the zone. his slider comes in at 83 and is a decent swing and miss pitch. it has a fairly pronounced downward spike, but it's his only offspeed pitch.
my first impression of both pitches were that they were fairly mediocre. his fastball's velocity and movement is negated by it's placement, and the effectiveness of his slider is negated by the lack of any other secondary pitch. on the plus side, he does vary the velocity of his fastball, but it's not such a good pitch that he can get away with throwing the 85% of the time that he did last season.
i'd like to see him throw a changeup, but if he doesn't already at this point, i doubt that he's going to in the future. what santana really needs is a pitch that can come in 15 MPH under his FB that would just end up making his fastball pop that much more.
as it is, i don't much like his future. starting pitchers that throw sliders generally develop arm problems at some point in their career. arm trouble in santana's case could cost him 2-3 MPH off his fastball, and that would pretty much end his major league career. that's a problem for all pitchers, regardless of repertoire, but i don't see anything from santana that would lead me to believe that he could adapt if that situation were to rear it's head.
1. jered weaver, RHSP
2. nick adenhart, RHSP - 2008
3. ervin santana, RHSP
4. sean o'sullivan, RHSP - 2009
5. jordan walden, RHSP - 2010
6. nick green, RHSP - late 2008
7. ken herndon, RHSP - 2009 *sleeper*
8. brok butcher, RHSP - early 2009
9. chris resop, RHRP
10.rich thompson, RHRP - april 2008
the angels deserve a vast amount of credit for bringing into their organization as many legitimate prospects as they have, but i don't much like the career prospects of many of these pitchers if they continue along this path. sean o'sullivan threw 160 innings this year as a 19 year old. ken herndon threw 152 as a 21 year old. nick green threw 180 innings as a 23 year old.
i believe that a pitcher's major league debut should be timed to his peak in development during his age 22, 23, or 24 season. in this system, i see a lot of players peaking at that age, but i see them doing it in A and AA. i like nick green a lot, but for him to throw 180 minor league innings this past season is completely unnecessary.
there are a bunch of other pitchers in this system that deserve to be mentioned as guys to watch in 2008. those names include: aaron cook, felipe arredondo, jeremy haynes, robert fish, young-il jung.
Spotlight: Ervin Santana
santana's fastball sits 91-94, and is a 60 on the 20-80 scale. he has a bad habit of leaving it up in the zone, and he also has a tendency to reach back for some extra velocity when he is having trouble finding the zone. his slider comes in at 83 and is a decent swing and miss pitch. it has a fairly pronounced downward spike, but it's his only offspeed pitch.
my first impression of both pitches were that they were fairly mediocre. his fastball's velocity and movement is negated by it's placement, and the effectiveness of his slider is negated by the lack of any other secondary pitch. on the plus side, he does vary the velocity of his fastball, but it's not such a good pitch that he can get away with throwing the 85% of the time that he did last season.
i'd like to see him throw a changeup, but if he doesn't already at this point, i doubt that he's going to in the future. what santana really needs is a pitch that can come in 15 MPH under his FB that would just end up making his fastball pop that much more.
as it is, i don't much like his future. starting pitchers that throw sliders generally develop arm problems at some point in their career. arm trouble in santana's case could cost him 2-3 MPH off his fastball, and that would pretty much end his major league career. that's a problem for all pitchers, regardless of repertoire, but i don't see anything from santana that would lead me to believe that he could adapt if that situation were to rear it's head.
Tuesday, October 16, 2007
2008 Washington Nationals Organizational Depth Report
rank...name...position...ETA
1. collin balester, RHSP - mid 2008
2. john lannan, LHSP
3. matt chico, LHSP
4. ross detwiler, LHSP - 2008
5. jordan zimmerman, RHSP - 2010
6. jon albaladejo, RHRP
7. zech zinicola, RHRP - 2008
8. garret mock, RHSP - late 2008
9. shairon martis, RHSP - 2009
10.jhonny nunez, RHSP - 2011
ross detwiler, josh smoker, jack mcgeary, and jordan zimmerman headline an excellent draft for washington. before the draft, i wasn't very high smoker or detwiler, but the combination of those two and the higher risk duo mcgeary and zimmerman form a very solid draft. only texas could claim to have brought in more pitching talent than via the 2007 draft than washington, but that is nothing to be ashamed of. i was not a jim bowden fan before he took over as the national's GM, but with what he's done to rebuild the organization's pitching depth, i have to give him an A for his effort.
albaladejo and zinicola are two more relievers in the mold that i love, good control, high GB%, low hype. i don't quite know where each fits in with washington's future plans, though.
Spotlight: Matt Chico/John Lannan
chico's fastball can touch 89, but it mainly sits in the 85-88 range, which isn't much of a problem, as he spots the pitch very well. his changeup comes in a few MPH under his fastball at 81-84 MPH, and he also throws a slurve that comes in at about 77 MPH. chico is completely underwhelming, and if the nats' new park plays just league average, chico could see his ERA skyrocket. there is nothing about chico that is impressive, and though his numbers look solid, i cannot see him having a long successful career.
john lannan throws a mid 80s fastball which he does a pretty good job of keeping down and spotting on both corners. like chico, his changeup comes in just a few MPH under his FB. his breaking ball is real slurvy, and not a true swing and miss pitch.
neither pitcher is a real good bet for success in 2008, but lannan's got a slight advantage because of the deception that comes with having a 6'5" frame. both lannan and chico should fit into washington's 2008 rotation as slightly below league average to slightly above replacement level type starters.
1. collin balester, RHSP - mid 2008
2. john lannan, LHSP
3. matt chico, LHSP
4. ross detwiler, LHSP - 2008
5. jordan zimmerman, RHSP - 2010
6. jon albaladejo, RHRP
7. zech zinicola, RHRP - 2008
8. garret mock, RHSP - late 2008
9. shairon martis, RHSP - 2009
10.jhonny nunez, RHSP - 2011
ross detwiler, josh smoker, jack mcgeary, and jordan zimmerman headline an excellent draft for washington. before the draft, i wasn't very high smoker or detwiler, but the combination of those two and the higher risk duo mcgeary and zimmerman form a very solid draft. only texas could claim to have brought in more pitching talent than via the 2007 draft than washington, but that is nothing to be ashamed of. i was not a jim bowden fan before he took over as the national's GM, but with what he's done to rebuild the organization's pitching depth, i have to give him an A for his effort.
albaladejo and zinicola are two more relievers in the mold that i love, good control, high GB%, low hype. i don't quite know where each fits in with washington's future plans, though.
Spotlight: Matt Chico/John Lannan
chico's fastball can touch 89, but it mainly sits in the 85-88 range, which isn't much of a problem, as he spots the pitch very well. his changeup comes in a few MPH under his fastball at 81-84 MPH, and he also throws a slurve that comes in at about 77 MPH. chico is completely underwhelming, and if the nats' new park plays just league average, chico could see his ERA skyrocket. there is nothing about chico that is impressive, and though his numbers look solid, i cannot see him having a long successful career.
john lannan throws a mid 80s fastball which he does a pretty good job of keeping down and spotting on both corners. like chico, his changeup comes in just a few MPH under his FB. his breaking ball is real slurvy, and not a true swing and miss pitch.
neither pitcher is a real good bet for success in 2008, but lannan's got a slight advantage because of the deception that comes with having a 6'5" frame. both lannan and chico should fit into washington's 2008 rotation as slightly below league average to slightly above replacement level type starters.
Monday, October 15, 2007
2008 Atlanta Braves Organizational Depth Report
rank...name...position...ETA
1. joey devine, RHRP
2. kris medlen, RHRP - august 2008
3. jamie richmond, RHSP - mid 2009
4. tommy hanson, RHSP - late 2009
5. anthony lerew, RHSP
6. jo-jo reyes, LHSP - late 2008
7* cole rohrbough, LHSP - 2010
8* jose ortegano, RHSP - 2012
9* edgar osuna, RHSP - 2012
10.jose ascanio, RHRP
the fact that the top two arms in this system are both relievers should be a big concern for anyone with a stake in the team's future. i like both devine and medlen, but neither is a lights out option, and both have their warts. medlen gets the nod over richmond and hanson because i view him to be more likely to be an above average player.
i've been searching for a legitimate justification for ranking richmond ahead of hanson, but i can't really come up with anything. i guess the best support i could use is that i think hanson's BB rate will start to drag him down when he reaches AA. i just think richmond is the better bet to be a solid starter.
lerew had TJ surgery in june, and will likely be out of action until that time in 2008.
the three short season pitchers are included with asterisks because including them goes against what these lists attempt to do. but i don't see any better options for inclusion.
to put it bluntly, this is an organization that is primed for a steep decline. the major league rotation is mediocre overall, and downright horrible in the 3-5 spots, but even worse is that there are no reinforcement's coming. i like jamie richmond, but i don't think he's particularly close to being ready to debut. ditto for tommy hanson.
Spotlight: IOU
i could do joey devine here, but i don't see any pressing need. after i'm done with these lists, i think i'll take some time to look at chuck james to make up this missing piece.
1. joey devine, RHRP
2. kris medlen, RHRP - august 2008
3. jamie richmond, RHSP - mid 2009
4. tommy hanson, RHSP - late 2009
5. anthony lerew, RHSP
6. jo-jo reyes, LHSP - late 2008
7* cole rohrbough, LHSP - 2010
8* jose ortegano, RHSP - 2012
9* edgar osuna, RHSP - 2012
10.jose ascanio, RHRP
the fact that the top two arms in this system are both relievers should be a big concern for anyone with a stake in the team's future. i like both devine and medlen, but neither is a lights out option, and both have their warts. medlen gets the nod over richmond and hanson because i view him to be more likely to be an above average player.
i've been searching for a legitimate justification for ranking richmond ahead of hanson, but i can't really come up with anything. i guess the best support i could use is that i think hanson's BB rate will start to drag him down when he reaches AA. i just think richmond is the better bet to be a solid starter.
lerew had TJ surgery in june, and will likely be out of action until that time in 2008.
the three short season pitchers are included with asterisks because including them goes against what these lists attempt to do. but i don't see any better options for inclusion.
to put it bluntly, this is an organization that is primed for a steep decline. the major league rotation is mediocre overall, and downright horrible in the 3-5 spots, but even worse is that there are no reinforcement's coming. i like jamie richmond, but i don't think he's particularly close to being ready to debut. ditto for tommy hanson.
Spotlight: IOU
i could do joey devine here, but i don't see any pressing need. after i'm done with these lists, i think i'll take some time to look at chuck james to make up this missing piece.
Friday, October 12, 2007
2008 Seattle Mariners Organizational Depth Report
rank...name...position...ETA
1. felix hernandez, RHSP
2. brandon morrow, RHRP
3. kam mickolio, RHRP - april 2008
4. chris tillman, RHSP - 2009
5. eric o'flaherty, LHRP
6. nathan adcock, RHSP - late 2009
7. robert rohrbaugh, LHSP - 2008
8. kyle parker, RHSP - late 2009
9. roman martinez, RHRP - 2009
10.nicholas hill, LHRP - 2011
felix hernandez is still a stud. give him time to grow into his role, and just realize that he is doing what he is at a time when most of us would be juniors in college. enjoy him while you have him, because in 4 years, he'll be in pinstripes.
i don't much like the way that seattle is handling chris tillman. i don't think he should have thrown as many innings as he did, and i don't think he should have thrown those innings at the level he did. but considering the relative success of adam jones, brandon morrow, and wladimir balentien, maybe i could learn something from bavasi and company. then again, there is a case to be made against this manner of promotion, which is typified by asdrubal cabrera, so maybe the truth is somewhere in the middle. maybe they've just learned their lessons from the ryan anderson years, and decided to push their pitchers fast, so that even if said pitchers break down, the organization would have gotten some use out of them
mickolio is 6'9", and pitches as such. he gets a lot of sink on his fastball, and should be a successful middle reliever for the next 6 years.
roman martinez is a reliever in the seattle mold. i like him, but i don't see a clear path for him to advance to the majors, so he might just be trade fodder.
Spotlight: Brandon Morrow
morrow's got a fastball that gets easily into the high 90s. it sits in the 94-96 range, but it's mostly straight, and if you can catch up to it, it'll go a mile, as sean casey can attest (7th inning, 7-13-2007). his curve sits in the mid 80s and has a decent late break. i get a pretty strong feeling that he's overthrowing it, though. his changeup also comes in at 84-87 MPH, and is apparently refered to as a splitter by baseball america and the mariner's announcing crew.
the big question for morrow going into next season is whether he will start or relieve?
based on what i've seen of morrow throughout the 2007 season, i can honestly say i have no idea whether he would be a successful starter. his fastball is nice, but is relatively straight, his curve is average, and his splitter is a nice out pitch, but i don't think it can be relied upon 12-15 times per game, as would be necessary if morrow is converted to a starter.
there are two comparable pitchers that i've looked at already, whose situations were parallel to what morrow is facing going into '08. those pitchers are brandon mccarthy and mike pelfrey (convenient, huh?).
mccarthy started out his major league career in the bullpen for the sox 2005 world series winning team. his profile was as a fireballing righty with a good curve. he was moved into the rotation in 2006 and then traded to texas for john danks and nick masset in 2007. when i watched him pitch this year, his high 90s 4 seamer from october 2005 had turned into a 90-92 MPH 2 seamer. this relates to morrow because, as mccarthy found out in 2006 after being converted to starter, you can't expect your high 90s heat to work if you can't maintain the velocity or location into the 5th, 6th, or 7th innings.
mike pelfrey is a name i bring up because, at the time he was drafted, he was said to have a plus-plus fastball and a plus curve. i don't believe that report is entirely dissimilar to morrow's scouting report out of college and through his first year and a half in pro ball. as it turned out for pelfrey, his curve was inadequate at the professional level, and this past year, he scrapped it altogether, opting instead to throw a slider.
this is as good a case as i can make against morrow moving into the rotation. i'd be interested in hearing a counter argument in favor of changing morrow's role, inserting him into the rotation.
1. felix hernandez, RHSP
2. brandon morrow, RHRP
3. kam mickolio, RHRP - april 2008
4. chris tillman, RHSP - 2009
5. eric o'flaherty, LHRP
6. nathan adcock, RHSP - late 2009
7. robert rohrbaugh, LHSP - 2008
8. kyle parker, RHSP - late 2009
9. roman martinez, RHRP - 2009
10.nicholas hill, LHRP - 2011
felix hernandez is still a stud. give him time to grow into his role, and just realize that he is doing what he is at a time when most of us would be juniors in college. enjoy him while you have him, because in 4 years, he'll be in pinstripes.
i don't much like the way that seattle is handling chris tillman. i don't think he should have thrown as many innings as he did, and i don't think he should have thrown those innings at the level he did. but considering the relative success of adam jones, brandon morrow, and wladimir balentien, maybe i could learn something from bavasi and company. then again, there is a case to be made against this manner of promotion, which is typified by asdrubal cabrera, so maybe the truth is somewhere in the middle. maybe they've just learned their lessons from the ryan anderson years, and decided to push their pitchers fast, so that even if said pitchers break down, the organization would have gotten some use out of them
mickolio is 6'9", and pitches as such. he gets a lot of sink on his fastball, and should be a successful middle reliever for the next 6 years.
roman martinez is a reliever in the seattle mold. i like him, but i don't see a clear path for him to advance to the majors, so he might just be trade fodder.
Spotlight: Brandon Morrow
morrow's got a fastball that gets easily into the high 90s. it sits in the 94-96 range, but it's mostly straight, and if you can catch up to it, it'll go a mile, as sean casey can attest (7th inning, 7-13-2007). his curve sits in the mid 80s and has a decent late break. i get a pretty strong feeling that he's overthrowing it, though. his changeup also comes in at 84-87 MPH, and is apparently refered to as a splitter by baseball america and the mariner's announcing crew.
the big question for morrow going into next season is whether he will start or relieve?
based on what i've seen of morrow throughout the 2007 season, i can honestly say i have no idea whether he would be a successful starter. his fastball is nice, but is relatively straight, his curve is average, and his splitter is a nice out pitch, but i don't think it can be relied upon 12-15 times per game, as would be necessary if morrow is converted to a starter.
there are two comparable pitchers that i've looked at already, whose situations were parallel to what morrow is facing going into '08. those pitchers are brandon mccarthy and mike pelfrey (convenient, huh?).
mccarthy started out his major league career in the bullpen for the sox 2005 world series winning team. his profile was as a fireballing righty with a good curve. he was moved into the rotation in 2006 and then traded to texas for john danks and nick masset in 2007. when i watched him pitch this year, his high 90s 4 seamer from october 2005 had turned into a 90-92 MPH 2 seamer. this relates to morrow because, as mccarthy found out in 2006 after being converted to starter, you can't expect your high 90s heat to work if you can't maintain the velocity or location into the 5th, 6th, or 7th innings.
mike pelfrey is a name i bring up because, at the time he was drafted, he was said to have a plus-plus fastball and a plus curve. i don't believe that report is entirely dissimilar to morrow's scouting report out of college and through his first year and a half in pro ball. as it turned out for pelfrey, his curve was inadequate at the professional level, and this past year, he scrapped it altogether, opting instead to throw a slider.
this is as good a case as i can make against morrow moving into the rotation. i'd be interested in hearing a counter argument in favor of changing morrow's role, inserting him into the rotation.
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